BKMT READING GUIDES
The Right Decision: A Mathematician Reveals How the Secrets of Decision Theory
by James Stein
Hardcover : 256 pages
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CAN YOU EVER BE SURE YOU'RE MAKING THE RIGHT DECISION?
Should you stay in a comfy job with little chance of advancement-or take a riskier one in which you could make lots of money but also wind up on the street?
Should you listen to a doctor who advises surgery-or ...
Introduction
CAN YOU EVER BE SURE YOU'RE MAKING THE RIGHT DECISION?
Should you stay in a comfy job with little chance of advancement-or take a riskier one in which you could make lots of money but also wind up on the street?
Should you listen to a doctor who advises surgery-or trust another who tells you to wait and see if your condition improves?
Should you remain in a cozy relationship without much spark-or cut your losses and search for your soul mate?
Is there ever a ?right? decision? Professor James Stein would argue yes, and in this provocative new book, he shows you how to apply the mathematical principles of Decision Theory to every aspect of your life. Ingeniously blending statistics, probability, game theory, economics, and even philosophy, this dynamic new approach to decision making can help you choose a new career path, buy a better home, even pick the perfect mate. With The Right Decision, you can't go wrong.
INCLUDES ENTERTAINING INTERACTIVE QUIZZES TO HELP YOU MAKE THE RIGHT DECISION EVERY TIME!
Excerpt
Learning how to make successful decisions is something like learning how to ride a bike - you've got to actually do it rather than just read about it. The core of this book is a collection of interactive quizzes that give you an opportunity to make a decision - and then to see how well you did. The first quiz in the book involves one of the most important decisions of the last hundred years - and it's a big reason that you're reading this quiz in English rather than German. ...
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Discussion Questions
1) What are payoffs? Can you think of a decision from your own life in which the key point was to maximize favorable payoffs? Can you think of a decision from your own life in which the key point was to minimize adverse payoffs?2) How can an estimation of the probabilities help you make a successful decision?
3) What is an inadmissible action? Can you think of an instance from your own life where you either did or should have eliminated an inadmissible action?
4) What is the minimax criterion? Under what types of circumstances should the minimax criterion be applied? Can you think of a decision that confronted you in which you should have applied the minimax criterion?
5) What is Bayes' Criterion? Under what types of circumstances should Bayes' Criterion be applied? Can you think of a decision that confronted you in which you should have applied Bayes' Criterion?
6) What is the maximax criterion? Under what types of circumstances should the maximax criterion be applied? Can you think of a decision that confronted you in which you should have applied the maximax criterion?
7) Can you think of a decision that you made with insufficient information? Could you have obtained additional information that would have helped you make a better decision?
8) Can you think of a decision in which information is concealed that would have a more favorable outcome if that information were revealed?
9) Can you think of any current examples of stable and unstable equilibria, either from your own life or from current events? When is it advisable to try to maintain an equilibrium, and when is it advisable to try to upset an equilibrium?
10) What is the difference between competitive and cooperative solutions? Under what conditions can a competitive solution evolve into a cooperative one?
11) What is a vindictive solution? Have you ever attempted to achieve one?
Notes From the Author to the Bookclub
The great learning experiences are generally characterized by utility and enjoyability - preferably both. I'd always wanted to write a book about decision theory, because not only is it a fascinating subject, it's an immensely valuable one. The success or failure of our lives depends in large measure on how well we make the decisions that confront us - whether those decisions involve our personal relationships, our careers, or our health and happiness. It suddenly struck me that there was a wonderful way to write this - to give the reader a chance to make a series of critical decisions; some from history, some from business, and some from everyday life. Hopefully the reader of THE RIGHT DECISION will come away with a better idea of how to make successful decisions - and have a uniquely enjoyable experience in the process.Book Club Recommendations
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